{"id":2848,"date":"2024-04-02T20:07:49","date_gmt":"2024-04-02T20:07:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.brightmine.com\/uk\/?post_type=resources&#038;p=2848"},"modified":"2026-07-27T09:17:06","modified_gmt":"2026-07-27T09:17:06","slug":"2024-pay-forecast-falling-inflation-resulting-in-pay-awards-drop","status":"publish","type":"resources","link":"https:\/\/www.brightmine.com\/uk\/resources\/total-rewards\/pay-trends\/2024-pay-forecast-falling-inflation-resulting-in-pay-awards-drop\/","title":{"rendered":"2024 pay forecast: falling inflation resulting in pay awards drop"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div class=\"wp-block-group alignwide has-primary-white-background-color has-background has-global-padding is-layout-constrained wp-container-core-group-is-layout-b5fc8583 wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\" style=\"border-radius:25px;padding-top:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);padding-right:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);padding-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);padding-left:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30)\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-7fc3d43a wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:70%\">\n<p class=\"\">by <strong>Brightmine<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list is-style-brightmine-list-item-spacing-small\">\n<li class=\"\"><em>The latest pay forecast predicts a median basic pay award of 4% for 2024.<\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"\"><em>For the three months to the end of February 2024, the median basic pay award stands at 4.8%, down for the second consecutive rolling quarter.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">The latest pay forecast data from Brightmine, formerly XpertHR, predicts the median basic pay award in 2024 will be 4%, down two percentage points on the median in 2023, which was the highest recorded level for 32 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">In the three months to the end of February 2024, the median basic pay award stands at 4.8%, down for the second consecutive rolling quarter, indicating the downward trajectory has already started.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">Sheila Attwood, Brightmine senior content manager, data and HR insights, comments: \u201cOur forecast indicates the value of pay awards will fall further as we head towards April, the busiest month of the year for this activity. Over the year as a whole, we forecast a median 4% pay award, although 5% is the most common prediction, suggesting a final outturn somewhere in the region of these two figures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">\u201cThe fact that pay awards are now higher than CPI inflation shows that organisations are doing all they can to pay what they can afford to retain talent and are not looking to reduce pay awards as quickly as inflation is falling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">\u201cEmployers know that they might struggle to match employee expectations on pay this year. They will be keeping a keen eye on inflation levels and what their competitors are offering. Organisation performance and affordability will also be key drivers of decisions on pay increase levels this year.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pay forecasts for 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">Employers and employees have felt the impact of high inflation in the last few years. In 2023, the median pay award stood at 6%, a two-percentage-point jump from the previous year \u2013 a direct impact of inflation. However, the landscape is changing, with measures of inflation continuing to decline, and as a result, so are pay awards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">Ahead of April, the busiest period for pay awards, Brightmine collected details of 213 pay award forecasts for 2024, representing close to a quarter of a million UK employees from 158 organisations, and found that:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"\"><strong>The median pay award forecast for 2024 is 4%.<\/strong> When combining organisations that reported in the survey they had already settled and those yet to finalise the pay award 2024, the median forecast for all employee groups remains at 4%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"\"><strong>The most commonly predicted pay award value is 5%.<\/strong> This figure represents around one-fifth (23%) of all forecasts, closely followed by 4% and 3%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"\"><strong>Few pay deals are expected to be worth more than those in 2023.<\/strong> Close to half (47%) of forecast pay awards are expected to be lower than the 2023 award employees received. Around one-third (34%) are expected to be the same, whilst just 19% are expected to be worth more than the previous settlement.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"\"><strong>Pay awards are higher in larger organisations. <\/strong>The median forecast for large organisations is slightly higher at 4.5%, while predictions for smaller organisations (less than 1,000 employees) are 4%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Latest rolling quarter findings<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">The median pay award has dropped for the second consecutive rolling quarter to 4.8%, the lowest level seen since the rolling quarter to September 2022. Most deals this rolling quarter came into effect in January, contributing to the figure being down 0.2 percentage points from the previous rolling quarter, which had already been revised down from 5.1%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">Based on 94 pay settlements that came into effect in the three months to the end of February 2024, covering close to 200,000 employees \u2013 Brightmine found that:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"\"><strong>The most common pay rise given is 4%.<\/strong> A fifth (20%) of pay awards are worth exactly 4%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"\"><strong>A quarter of deals are worth 6% or more.<\/strong> Following a revision to January data, the upper quartile has dropped to 6% for two consecutive rolling quarters.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"\"><strong>More than half of pay deals were worth less.<\/strong> Based on a matched sample of 76 employee groups, 58% of pay deals were lower than those given to employees a year ago. Just a quarter of deals (28%) were worth more than the previous year.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">Sheila Attwood added: \u201cAfter historically high pay awards during 2023, that came largely off the back of the jump in inflation, we knew that employers would show more restraint in their 2024 pay reviews.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">\u201cThe data for the first deals concluded in 2024 confirms this, with Brightmine recording a median 4.8% award in the three months to the end of February. However, this is just the beginning of the year, and the beginning of us building a picture for what reviews over the full year will look like.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"634\" height=\"404\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.brightmine.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/04\/18154523\/brightmine_pay_trends_march_2024_chart_1.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5835\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cdn.brightmine.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/04\/18154523\/brightmine_pay_trends_march_2024_chart_1.webp 634w, https:\/\/cdn.brightmine.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/04\/18154523\/brightmine_pay_trends_march_2024_chart_1-300x191.webp 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 634px) 100vw, 634px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><em>Pay review pattern &#8211; whole economy, February 2023 to February 2024<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column lnrs-hide-block-on-mobile is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"border-left-color:var(--wp--preset--color--secondary-gray);border-left-width:2px;padding-left:10px;flex-basis:30%\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-global-padding is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained wp-container-2 is-position-sticky\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-bleach-white-background-color has-background has-global-padding is-layout-constrained wp-container-core-group-is-layout-a36fa716 wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\" style=\"border-radius:14px;padding-top:10px;padding-right:15px;padding-bottom:15px;padding-left:15px\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Navigate HR complexity with confidence<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">With Brightmine, you can build powerful people strategies, implement best practices and set your organisation up for a brighter future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">Learn how our tools, resources and automation can empower you and your team.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"\/uk\/solutions\/?intcmp=cta|blog|solutions|learn-more\" style=\"border-radius:25px\">Learn more<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group lnrs-hide-block-on-mobile has-global-padding is-layout-constrained wp-container-core-group-is-layout-ad1af2a0 wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\" style=\"margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;padding-top:0;padding-bottom:0\">\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-secondary-gray-color has-alpha-channel-opacity has-secondary-gray-background-color has-background\" style=\"margin-top:10px;margin-bottom:10px\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">Read more articles:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-query is-layout-flow wp-block-query-is-layout-flow\"><ul class=\"wp-block-post-template is-layout-flow wp-container-core-post-template-is-layout-ea1fff98 wp-block-post-template-is-layout-flow\"><li class=\"wp-block-post post-19302 resources type-resources status-publish has-post-thumbnail hentry category-press-releases topic-pay-trends\">\n<h2 style=\"font-size:clamp(14px, 0.875rem + ((1vw - 3.2px) * 0.274), 16px);line-height:1.3;text-decoration:underline; margin-top:10px;margin-bottom:10px;margin-left:0;margin-right:0;\" class=\"has-link-color wp-elements-0b1b36f3c2dfa7682bfd13b67e3228a9 wp-block-post-title has-text-color has-primary-black-color\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brightmine.com\/uk\/resources\/total-rewards\/pay-trends\/pay-trends-2026-july-report\/\" target=\"_self\" >Pay trends 2026 | July Report<\/a><\/h2>\n<\/li><li class=\"wp-block-post post-18361 resources type-resources status-publish has-post-thumbnail hentry category-press-releases topic-pay-trends\">\n<h2 style=\"font-size:clamp(14px, 0.875rem + ((1vw - 3.2px) * 0.274), 16px);line-height:1.3;text-decoration:underline; margin-top:10px;margin-bottom:10px;margin-left:0;margin-right:0;\" class=\"has-link-color wp-elements-0b1b36f3c2dfa7682bfd13b67e3228a9 wp-block-post-title has-text-color has-primary-black-color\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brightmine.com\/uk\/resources\/total-rewards\/pay-trends\/pay-trends-2026-june-report\/\" target=\"_self\" >Pay trends 2026 | June Report<\/a><\/h2>\n<\/li><li class=\"wp-block-post post-17824 resources type-resources status-publish has-post-thumbnail hentry category-press-releases topic-pay-trends\">\n<h2 style=\"font-size:clamp(14px, 0.875rem + ((1vw - 3.2px) * 0.274), 16px);line-height:1.3;text-decoration:underline; 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But the &#8230;<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"lnrs-resource-hub-widget__resource\" style=\"background-color: #f3f2f0\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.brightmine.com\/uk\/resources\/total-rewards\/pay-trends\/pay-trends-2026-july-report\/\"><div class=\"lnrs-resource-hub-widget__resource_image\" style=\"background-image: url(https:\/\/cdn.brightmine.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/07\/21155120\/two-female-hr-professionals-meeting-in-office.webp);\"><\/div><\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"lnrs-resource-hub-widget__inner_content\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"content-top\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"lnrs-resource-hub-widget__categories\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"lnrs-resource-hub-widget__category_wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"sync\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brightmine.com\/wp-content\/plugins\/lnrs-resources-filter\/assets\/images\/category-flag.svg\" alt=\"\" class=\"lnrs-resource-hub-widget__category_icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"lnrs-resource-hub-widget__category\">Press releases<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"title\" style=\"color: #00728B\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brightmine.com\/uk\/resources\/total-rewards\/pay-trends\/pay-trends-2026-july-report\/\">Pay trends 2026 | July Report<\/a><\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<p style=\"color: #202526\">Discover the latest UK pay trends for July 2026. 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UK pay awards remain steady at 3.2% as employers &#8230;<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-global-padding is-layout-constrained wp-container-core-group-is-layout-5fb0786f wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-primary-white-background-color has-background has-global-padding is-layout-constrained wp-container-core-group-is-layout-fcdab8bb wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\" style=\"border-radius:25px;margin-top:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);margin-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);padding-top:var(--wp--preset--spacing--40);padding-right:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);padding-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--40);padding-left:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30)\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-global-padding is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-topics-on-this-page\" style=\"font-style:normal;font-weight:500\">Topics on this page<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-nowrap is-layout-flex wp-container-core-group-is-layout-6c531013 wp-block-group-is-layout-flex\">\n\n<div class=\"taxonomy-topic has-link-color wp-elements-5ec59eb01c09ec2f1d84a6b36973ff83 wp-block-post-terms\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brightmine.com\/uk\/resources\/total-rewards\/benchmarking\/\" rel=\"tag\">Benchmarking<\/a><span class=\"wp-block-post-terms__separator\">, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brightmine.com\/uk\/resources\/total-rewards\/pay-trends\/\" rel=\"tag\">Pay trends<\/a><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-cararra-gray-color has-alpha-channel-opacity has-cararra-gray-background-color has-background is-style-wide\"\/>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-about-the-author\" style=\"font-style:normal;font-weight:500\">About the author<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-658170e2 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:100px\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized has-custom-border is-style-rounded\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"128\" height=\"128\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.brightmine.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/03\/12085308\/Brightmine_Favicon_128px.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-313\" style=\"border-radius:25px;object-fit:cover;width:100px;height:100px\"\/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-vertically-aligned-center is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"\"><strong>Brightmine<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">With more than 10,000 customers, Brightmine is a leading global provider of people data, analytics and insight \u2013 empowering HR leaders to deliver brighter business outcomes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">For more than two decades, Brightmine, formerly XpertHR, has continued to help HR leaders confidently navigate the evolving world of work through our unique combination of critical workforce data, AI-enabled technology and trusted HR expertise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"\">Brightmine is a division of LexisNexis Data Services within RELX\u00ae, a global provider of information-based analytics and decision tools. RELX serves customers in 180+ countries with 35,000+ employees. Ticker: London: REL; Amsterdam: REN; New York: RELX.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-primary-black-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-ad14550bb07010b79fc22eb0ca4e129e\">Follow Brightmine on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/company\/brightmine\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">LinkedIn<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Pay awards, which have dropped for the second consecutive rolling quarter, are now on a downward trend, according to the latest pay data from Brightmine.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":24,"featured_media":6539,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"wp-custom-template-new-resources","categories":[6],"tags":[],"topic":[26,43],"class_list":["post-2848","resources","type-resources","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","topic-benchmarking","topic-pay-trends"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin 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