{"id":9447,"date":"2024-10-23T07:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-10-23T07:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.brightmine.com\/uk\/?post_type=resources&p=9447"},"modified":"2025-07-10T14:08:31","modified_gmt":"2025-07-10T14:08:31","slug":"pay-trends-2024-october-report","status":"publish","type":"resources","link":"https:\/\/www.brightmine.com\/uk\/resources\/total-rewards\/pay-trends\/pay-trends-2024-october-report\/","title":{"rendered":"Pay trends 2024 | October report"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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by Brightmine<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

UK pay rises flatten in Q3 and forecasted to drop further in 2025<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The latest data from HR data and insights provider Brightmine<\/a>, formerly XpertHR, shows that UK pay rises have stalled at 4% this quarter, while its 2025 Pay Forecast<\/strong> anticipates pay awards to continue to fall next year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation has played a key part in driving up pay increases in recent years, however business performance and affordability are set to drive next year\u2019s anticipated drop in pay awards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Brightmine\u2019s data, representing nearly half a million UK employees, shows the median pay award forecast for the next 12 months is 3%, nearly two percentage points lower than the median pay award of 4.7% for the 12 months ending August 2024 and 50% lower than in the same period in 2023. However, pay rises are still forecast for most employees next year and few businesses anticipate enforcing pay freezes, with just 4% of businesses planning them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Businesses reported that the three factors most likely to negatively influence organisations\u2019 pay award decisions in the next 12 months are affordability<\/strong> (65%), organisation performance<\/strong> (36%) and inflation\/cost of living<\/strong> (27%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When asked about the factors most likely to increase the value of their pay awards next year, half of businesses stated skills shortages <\/strong>as one of the main factors, along with matching pay levels<\/strong> within their industry (58%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile in Brightmine\u2019s monthly Pay Trends Report, September saw pay rises remain flat at 4% for the third consecutive rolling quarter, based on 64 pay settlements that came into effect between 1 July and 30 September 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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“With economic pressures mounting, we\u2019re seeing organisations re-evaluate their pay strategies, and many are shifting their focus toward enhancing employee benefits as a way to balance employee expectations with the needs of the business.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While pay awards are expected to decline in 2025, businesses are continuing to find creative ways to support their workforce, particularly by addressing skills shortages and retaining key talent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Where organisations are perhaps falling short of employee expectations in regard to pay awards, good communication about pay decisions can help to mitigate this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The next 12 months will require a careful balance between affordability and maintaining a competitive edge in employee engagement and retention.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

– Sheila Atwood, senior content manager, data and HR Insights at Brightmine<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Brightmine October pay trends 2024 highlights<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

October has seen pay rises remain flat at 4% for the third quarter, according to the latest Brightmine Pay Trends report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Based on 64 pay settlements that came into effect between 1 July and 30 September 2024, covering 433,000 employees, Brightmine\u2019s data has shown:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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  • Lower pay increases prevail<\/strong>. As per previous rolling quarters, this rolling quarter we find that the majority (63%) of pay awards in a matched sample are lower than the same group of employees received the previous year. The remainder are split evenly between those that are higher, or the same (18.4% each).<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Public sector deals keep median high<\/strong>. Pay settlements in the public sector over the 12 months to the end of September 2024 stand at a median 5.5%, unchanged from the previous rolling year (to the end of August 2024). This follows a full 12 months when pay awards in the sector were in excess of 6% at the median.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Median stable<\/strong>. The median basic pay award in the three months to the end of September 2024 stands at 4%. It was previously higher \u2014 at 4.8% \u2014 in the three months to the end of June this year.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

    Pay review pattern – whole economy, September 2023 to September 2024<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
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