{"id":7215,"date":"2024-11-01T15:18:00","date_gmt":"2024-11-01T15:18:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.brightmine.com\/us\/?post_type=resources&#038;p=7215"},"modified":"2026-10-23T09:27:14","modified_gmt":"2026-10-23T14:27:14","slug":"2025-salary-budget-projections","status":"publish","type":"resources","link":"https:\/\/www.brightmine.com\/us\/resources\/total-rewards\/employee-compensation\/pay-trends\/2025-salary-budget-projections\/","title":{"rendered":"Salary budget 2025: Understanding the fallout of inflation"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div class=\"wp-block-group alignfull has-primary-white-background-color has-background has-global-padding is-layout-constrained wp-container-core-group-is-layout-f85887e8 wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\" style=\"border-radius:25px;padding-top:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);padding-right:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);padding-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);padding-left:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30)\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-929090b5 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:70%\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">by <strong>Victoria Kelleher<\/strong>, Lead Survey Specialist at Brightmine<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On September 18th, 2024, the Federal Reserve announced a long anticipated interest rate cut \u2014 a clear indicator that inflation has dropped to target levels. However, inflation rates surged beyond the pace of wage growth in 2021 and 2022, with many companies holding wages stagnant or even cutting them due to the uncertain economic landscape.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Employers often <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brightmine.com\/us\/resources\/blogs\/how-to-conduct-salary-benchmarking\/\">benchmark<\/a> against other companies when making decisions about how to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brightmine.com\/us\/solutions\/total-rewards-compensation\/\">adjust the salary budget<\/a> for an upcoming year. However, after such an unusual disruption in the pattern of inflation, employers may need to consider the implications of decisions they have made in recent years to decide whether it is appropriate follow the majority.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"2025-salary-budget-projections\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">2025 salary budget projections<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A recent pulse survey from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brightmine.com\/us\/about\/\">Brightmine<\/a>, formerly XpertHR, found that the average projected change for total salary budgets from 2024 to 2025 is an increase of 3.8%. This is well over the current level of inflation, which recent readings place at 2.4%. However, retrospective data shows a period in which inflation exceeded the average salary budget increase significantly (see Chart 1).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\" id=\"salary-budget-growth-vs-inflation-2021-2024\">Chart 1: Actual salary budget growth versus inflation, 2021 to 2024<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed aligncenter is-type-rich is-provider-infogram wp-block-embed-infogram\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<div class=\"infogram-embed\" data-id=\"_\/MnA3DydHX4LT0wk5mNeF\" data-type=\"interactive\" data-title=\"US-Salary Budget-C&amp;amp;I-Nov2024-1\"><\/div><script>!function(e,n,i,s){var d=\"InfogramEmbeds\";var o=e.getElementsByTagName(n)[0];if(window[d]&&window[d].initialized)window[d].process&&window[d].process();else if(!e.getElementById(i)){var r=e.createElement(n);r.async=1,r.id=i,r.src=s,o.parentNode.insertBefore(r,o)}}(document,\"script\",\"infogram-async\",\"https:\/\/e.infogram.com\/js\/dist\/embed-loader-min.js\");<\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Even though inflation rose to unprecedented levels in 2021 and 2022, our data shows that few companies increased salary budget proportionally for these years. Most companies either kept the magnitude of raises the same as previous years (38%) or even cut raises altogether (17%). Among those that issued a steeper increase for raises, a slim minority met or exceeded the rate of inflation, while about a third distributed raises that were slightly higher than normal but still below the inflation rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Most companies took a cautious approach in these years to avoid making rash decisions that might backfire in an uncertain economic climate. Though this may have been the right call at the time, employers should not lose sight of the way employees may have experienced misalignment in these factors if there has not yet been a correction. In a high inflationary environment, even a standard raise of 3% may be experienced by an employee as a pay cut when that money does not seem to go as far as it would have in the past.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Companies that were highly conservative about budget changes in recent years may be experiencing cascading effects on business outcomes today if they have not been able to bring wages back in alignment with the cost of living. Our recent data shows those that gave employees higher-than-usual raises during years with high inflation are more likely to report recent improvement in key performance indicators like turnover and engagement when compared with those that cut raises in these years (see Chart 2).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\" id=\"chart-effective-of-aligning-raises-with-inflation\">Chart 2: The effect of alignment of raises with inflation<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-infogram wp-block-embed-infogram\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<div class=\"infogram-embed\" data-id=\"_\/DqxzFFMoJS6KxvUEi3Jg\" data-type=\"interactive\" data-title=\"US-Salary Budget-C&amp;amp;I-Nov2024-Chart 2\"><\/div><script>!function(e,n,i,s){var d=\"InfogramEmbeds\";var o=e.getElementsByTagName(n)[0];if(window[d]&&window[d].initialized)window[d].process&&window[d].process();else if(!e.getElementById(i)){var r=e.createElement(n);r.async=1,r.id=i,r.src=s,o.parentNode.insertBefore(r,o)}}(document,\"script\",\"infogram-async\",\"https:\/\/e.infogram.com\/js\/dist\/embed-loader-min.js\");<\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-takeaway\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Takeaway<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When salary budget decisions are made, employers often factor in projections for next year to ensure they are aligned with competitors. However, our data shows that today&#8217;s trends in turnover and engagement may be rooted in decisions made around salary budget in recent years, which can differ from company to company.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Employers that took a highly conservative stance in response to inflation may need to recalibrate between wages and the cost of living to come closer into alignment. An audit of compensation compared to current market rates may help them to identify and correct lagging salaries, avoiding the relatively higher cost of recovering from an uptrend in turnover or disengagement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, not every company is in the position to boost salaries across the board. Those with budget constraints should prioritize employees who are at the highest risk of leaving, which tend to be those who live paycheck-to-paycheck. These employees can be identified by cross evaluating salaries with the cost of living by state.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Alternatively, employers may be able to get a sense of financial well-being across the workplace by surveying employees about factors like financial stress and salary satisfaction. If money is tight, prioritizing these employees to bring their compensation more in line with the cost of living will be the most stabilizing approach, even if it requires making sacrifices for compensation increases at higher levels of the organization.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column lnrs-hide-block-on-mobile is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"border-left-color:var(--wp--preset--color--secondary-gray);border-left-width:2px;padding-left:10px;flex-basis:30%\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-global-padding is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained wp-container-1 is-position-sticky\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-bleach-white-background-color has-background has-global-padding is-layout-constrained wp-container-core-group-is-layout-22a7c014 wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\" style=\"border-radius:14px;padding-top:10px;padding-right:15px;padding-bottom:15px;padding-left:15px\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Navigate HR complexity with confidence<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With Brightmine, you can build powerful people strategies, implement best practices and set your organization up for a brighter future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Learn how our tools, resources and automation can empower you and your team.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"\/us\/solutions\/?intcmp=cta|blog|solutions|learn-more\" style=\"border-radius:25px\">Learn more<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-global-padding is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\" style=\"margin-top:var(--wp--preset--spacing--40);margin-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--40)\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"#top\">Go back to the top<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div 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class=\"lnrs-resource-hub-widget__categories\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"lnrs-resource-hub-widget__category_wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"sync\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brightmine.com\/wp-content\/plugins\/lnrs-resources-filter\/assets\/images\/category-flag.svg\" alt=\"\" class=\"lnrs-resource-hub-widget__category_icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"lnrs-resource-hub-widget__category\">Company News<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"title\" style=\"color: #00728B\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brightmine.com\/us\/resources\/total-rewards\/employee-compensation\/pay-equity\/brightmine-launches-dynamic-pay-data\/\">Brightmine launches Dynamic Pay Data to strengthen salary benchmarking<\/a><\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<p style=\"color: #202526\">New capability helps HR leaders keep up with pay transparency changes and fast-moving labor 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Learn &#8230;<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"lnrs-resource-hub-widget__resource\" style=\"background-color: #f3f2f0\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.brightmine.com\/us\/resources\/hr-strategy\/hr-kpis\/salary-budget-2026-a-steady-metric-in-a-rocky-climate\/\"><div class=\"lnrs-resource-hub-widget__resource_image\" style=\"background-image: url(https:\/\/cdn.brightmine.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/11\/26062531\/salary-budget-projections.webp);\"><\/div><\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"lnrs-resource-hub-widget__inner_content\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"content-top\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"lnrs-resource-hub-widget__categories\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"lnrs-resource-hub-widget__category_wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"sync\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brightmine.com\/wp-content\/plugins\/lnrs-resources-filter\/assets\/images\/category-flag.svg\" alt=\"\" class=\"lnrs-resource-hub-widget__category_icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"lnrs-resource-hub-widget__category\">Commentary and Insights<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"title\" style=\"color: #00728B\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brightmine.com\/us\/resources\/hr-strategy\/hr-kpis\/salary-budget-2026-a-steady-metric-in-a-rocky-climate\/\">Salary budget 2026: A steady metric in a rocky climate<\/a><\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<p style=\"color: #202526\">Several metrics from 2025 point to an unsteady job climate in the United States this year. Learn more &#8230;<\/p>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group alignfull has-primary-white-background-color has-background has-global-padding is-layout-constrained wp-container-core-group-is-layout-84b47954 wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\" style=\"border-radius:25px;padding-top:var(--wp--preset--spacing--40);padding-right:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);padding-bottom:var(--wp--preset--spacing--40);padding-left:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30)\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group alignfull has-global-padding is-layout-constrained wp-container-core-group-is-layout-9f6a5453 wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\" style=\"padding-right:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30);padding-left:var(--wp--preset--spacing--30)\">\n<h3 id=\"h-topics-on-this-page\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" style=\"font-style:normal;font-weight:500\">Topics on this page<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group is-nowrap is-layout-flex wp-container-core-group-is-layout-7387b849 wp-block-group-is-layout-flex\">\n\n<div class=\"taxonomy-topic has-link-color wp-elements-5ec59eb01c09ec2f1d84a6b36973ff83 wp-block-post-terms\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brightmine.com\/us\/resources\/total-rewards\/benchmarking\/\" rel=\"tag\">Benchmarking<\/a><span class=\"wp-block-post-terms__separator\">, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brightmine.com\/us\/resources\/total-rewards\/employee-compensation\/pay-trends\/\" rel=\"tag\">Pay trends<\/a><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-cararra-gray-color has-alpha-channel-opacity has-cararra-gray-background-color has-background is-style-wide\"\/>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-about-the-author\" class=\"wp-block-heading\" style=\"font-style:normal;font-weight:500\">About the author<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-7387b849 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:100px\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-thumbnail is-resized is-style-rounded\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.brightmine.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/09\/18080027\/victoria-kelleher-150x150.webp\" alt=\"Victoria Kelleher, Lead Survey Specialist at Brightmine\" class=\"wp-image-6362\" style=\"object-fit:cover;width:100px;height:100px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cdn.brightmine.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/09\/18080027\/victoria-kelleher-150x150.webp 150w, https:\/\/cdn.brightmine.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/09\/18080027\/victoria-kelleher-300x300.webp 300w, https:\/\/cdn.brightmine.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/09\/18080027\/victoria-kelleher-768x768.webp 768w, https:\/\/cdn.brightmine.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/09\/18080027\/victoria-kelleher.webp 800w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 150px) 100vw, 150px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Victoria Kelleher, SHRM-CP<\/strong><br>Former Lead Survey Specialist, Brightmine<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Victoria is a former Brightmine as a Lead Survey Specialist.  She joined Brightmine with more than 5 years of research experience in academia. In order to collect data that can be used to generate actionable insights, Victoria designs and fields surveys on a wide range of HR-related topics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Before she joined Brightmine, Victoria worked as a Graduate Assistant at the University of Massachusetts, Dartmouth. She led multiple undergraduate-level Research Methods courses as an instructor. While pursuing her Master of Arts in research psychology, Victoria conducted independent survey research on emotion regulation and mental health. Victoria also holds a Bachelor of Science in biology and a Bachelor of Arts in philosophy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/victoria-kelleher\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Connect with Victoria on LinkedIn.<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Inflation has slowed, but 2025 salary budget projections reveal its lasting impact on pay decisions. Review the latest Brightmine salary budget data and learn how inflation may impact your pay increase decisions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":24,"featured_media":7781,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"wp-custom-template-new-resources","categories":[56],"tags":[],"topic":[27,66],"class_list":["post-7215","resources","type-resources","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-c-and-i","topic-benchmarking","topic-pay-trends"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.3 (Yoast SEO v28.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Salary budget 2025: Understanding the fallout of inflation | Brightmine<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"2025 salary budget projections reveal the lasting impact of inflation on pay decisions. 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