by Brightmine
The latest analysis of UK pay data signals a further decline in pay award levels in the second half of the year according to Brightmine.
Pay awards: September 2024 results
From a record high of 6% in 2024, the headline (median) measure of pay awards is, at 4%, at its lowest level since June 2022.
The most common pay awards are at 4% and 5% in the three months to the end of August 2004.
The slower growth in wages is due to the current economic and labour market situation. While unemployment and employment levels and rates slowed in July 2024, vacancies dropped by 42,000 on the last quarter, indicating a loosening of the labour market. Meanwhile, GDP showed no growth for the second consecutive month in July and while the consumer prices index (CPI) remained stable, retail prices index (RPI) fell slightly.
Most (72.7%) of the matched sample pay awards in the latest quarter were worth less than the same group of employees received last year. Only one in 10 (11.4%) were higher.
Chart 1: Pay review pattern – whole economy, August 2023 to August 2024
Public sector employees receive higher awards
As has been publicised, after several years of low pay awards due to the pressures on public finances, the Labour chancellor has accepted the recommendations or the pay review bodies, leading to above-inflation pay rises for millions of public sector workers.
Over the 12 months to the end of August, the median pay award in the public sector sits at 6%, while in the private sector it stands at 4.7% for the same period.
Chart 2: Pay review pattern – private and public sectors, August 2023 to August 2024
The manufacturing sector continues to fall behind the service sector.
In the three months to the end of August, a median pay rise of 3.8% was recorded among manufacturers. On the other hand, those in the services sector received a median pay rise of 4.3%. In both sectors there were very few pay awards in the last quarter worth 5% or more.
The latest analysis is from 67 pay awards effective between 1 June and 31 August 2024, covering almost 900,000 employees.
Coming up: next month we will be broadening out our analysis to include forecasts for pay awards in 2025
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About the author
Brightmine
With more than 10,000 customers, Brightmine is a leading global provider of people data, analytics and insight – empowering HR leaders to deliver brighter business outcomes.
For more than two decades, Brightmine, formerly XpertHR, has continued to help HR leaders confidently navigate the evolving world of work through our unique combination of critical workforce data, AI-enabled technology and trusted HR expertise.
Brightmine is a division of LexisNexis Data Services within RELX®, a global provider of information-based analytics and decision tools. RELX serves customers in 180+ countries with 35,000+ employees. Ticker: London: REL; Amsterdam: REN; New York: RELX.
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