Pay trends 2025 | July Report

By Clare Moore, Brightmine Communications Manager

Four in five UK workers receive lower pay awards than in 2024

New data from Brightmine, the HR data and insights provider, reveals that four in five UK employees have received a smaller pay awards in 2025 compared to last year, with pay awards standing at 3% for the seventh consecutive rolling quarter.

Sheila Attwood, HR Insights and Data Lead at Brightmine, comments: “After a period of historically high settlements in response to inflation, we’re now seeing the return of employer pay restraint. While 3% is consistent, it’s also stagnant, and real-terms pay erosion is starting to reappear for many, meaning many workers are actually worse off this year compared to inflation.”

Wage stagnation takes hold amid fragile economic outlook

The findings land as the UK marks one year under the Labour Government, with economic turbulence marking the milestone. GDP fell by 0.1% in May, the second month of contraction, and the Bank of England held the base rate at 4.25% in June. Although a cut has been hinted for August, the Monetary Policy Committee has remained cautious, stating any move will depend on evolving conditions.

Meanwhile, labour market indicators continue to weaken, with falling vacancy numbers and a decline in payrolled employees. The Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts that inflation will not reach the Bank’s 2% target until Q2 2026, suggesting that further real-terms pay pressure may lie ahead.

Public sector pay rises remain ahead of private sector

The data also highlights a growing divide between public- and private-sector pay awards. In the 12 months to the end of June 2025, the median public-sector pay award was 4.3%, compared to just 3% in the private sector. This gap, now at 1.3 percentage points, has widened significantly from just 0.4 points the previous year.

While both sectors have seen a drop in median award levels year-on-year, public-sector deals have proven more resilient. Notable settlements include a 4.5% rise for the armed forces and 4% for doctors and dentists helping to prop up the overall median.

However, unrest continues. Resident doctors are set to strike later this month after being awarded a 5.4% pay rise, a deal rejected by the British Medical Association, which is calling for a 29% uplift on top of last year’s average 8% increase.

Attwood adds: “Higher public-sector awards have helped keep the median up, but disputes like the junior doctors’ strike show the Government is far from out of the woods. One year in, Labour faces growing pressure to balance fiscal restraint with rising pay demands across critical services — and that tension is only set to intensify.”

Brightmine June 2025 pay trends highlights

Brightmine has collected details of 195 pay awards that took effect between 1 April and 30 June 2025, covering the pay review outcomes for more than 2.5 million UK employees. Our headline findings are as follows:

• No change in basic awards across 2025. For the seventh consecutive rolling quarter, the median basic pay award remains at 3% in the three months to the end of June 2025. The same period in 2024 recorded a median award of 4.8%, showing how the pay settlement landscape has changed within just the last 12 months.
• The majority of pay awards are lower. In a matched sample analysis, 81.2% of deals in the latest quarter are lower than the settlement provided to the same employee group in 2024. Just one in 20 (4.8%) of pay rises were higher than 2024, and the remaining 13.9% were the same.
• One in five basic awards are worth 3%. The most common basic pay award is 3%, which represents 19.7% of deals collected in the current quarter. The second most common is 2%, which is the value of around one in seven basic awards.
• Median of all awards is consistent with the headline figure. Assessing both basic and performance-based pay awards together indicates that the median award across all 195 pay awards is 3%.

Pay review pattern – private and public sectors, June 2024 to June 2025